28 Days, 28 Ideas #20: The Plan B Institute for a Jewish Future
Today’s idea comes from Charles Lenchner, an online organizing consultant who has worked with nonprofits and political organizations in Israel, Palestine and the United States. He has been active in Israeli and Jewish peace organizations since 1985.
In the movies, when something goes horribly awry, a supporting character will ask, “Do you have a Plan B?” Generally, the answer is no; hilarity or suspense ensues, but in the end the hero saves the day.
Jews don’t have a hero and our history is replete with bad endings. That’s why we need a think tank devoted to Plan B. The Plan B Institute for a Jewish Future will be devoted to asking painfully difficult questions about the consequences of Plan A passing the point of failure. The answers to those questions must include the outlines, at least, of a Plan B that we can fall back on.
Plan A – Current Reality
Let’s define our terms. Plan A is a global Jewish community in which over 2/3’s live in North America or Israel. Jews in America and the Middle East are wealthier, more educated and more politically powerful than nearly anyone else. We thrive, in the end, because of American military and economic power. This is true for us in the United States, and for our brethren in Israel.
Recency bias is a well studied psychological phenomenon in which our unconscious mind places undue emphasis on events in the recent past. It seems strange to argue that Jews suffer from this, given our commitment to memory and tradition, but recency bias is a human trait we all have. Assuming that things will continue more or less as before is a fantasy that allows us to lead normal lives. It is also the kind of fantasy that made it near impossible for Jews to figure out what Hitler had in mind for them.
Plan A captures the range of reasonable, sensible options we discuss in the media and in all other Jewish think tanks and policy institutes. Plan B represents the range of speculative, unlikely and horrific possibilities that we fear, while at the same time dismiss out of hand. But given our history of genocide and persecution – can we really afford to discount the possibility that Plan A might not work out, and we’ll be forced to come up with a Plan B in short order?
Plan B – Unlikely, But Possible
What if efforts to preserve Israel as a Jewish and democratic state fail, resulting in an exodus of millions of Israeli Jews?
What if the global economy enters a long and severe depression, with an accompanying rise in political extremism and upheaval around the world?
What if Jewish wealth, U.S. wealth, global financial wealth turn out to be imaginary sums that vanish and dwindle, leaving only the material world in its place?
What if American power suffers a drastic and long term decline, with countries such as China, Russia, Brazil and India setting the rules for a new international order?
The gift of prophecy no longer rests upon the world. So while that means that predictors of doom should not be automatically heeded, we have many examples where we might have been better off listening more closely. The recent collapse of the housing bubble is a case in point; in the years 2004-2006, numerous economists and researchers for financial firms warned that a bubble existed and would lead to painful results. But the decision makers at the Federal Reserve and Wall Street insisted that this was not the case.
When it comes to the future of Israel, in contrast, we have numerous political and military figures in Israel and the United States warning of an impending disaster. Namely, that the Palestinians will no longer be in line for a state alongside Israel, but will instead achieve a one state solution with the loss of Jewish sovereignty, or Israel will continue to rule the Palestinians in de facto Apartheid, with no end in sight.
Other options may be even worse. Fears of an Iranian nuclear weapon, of a mad Israeli effort to expel large number of Palestinians (again), or the internal collapse of Israeli vitality are also in the air. We fear those outcomes because they are possible, not impossible. Are we planning for them, or merely hoping to avoid them?
Our Think Tank and Policy Infrastructure
We have many think tanks, from the right wing, pro defense Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs (JINSA) to the inward looking Jewish Institute for Jewish & Community Research. We have outfits around the world devoted to Jews and Europe, Jews and demography, Jews and anti-Semitism, Jews and education, and of course Judaic scholarly research. But we do not have what we might call our safeguard in case all those other think tanks prove to be wrong about predicting the future, and unable to avert future disasters for our people.
This omission is striking. After all, much of our political language is full of the fear of negative outcomes, especially the destruction of the Jewish people. (“Never Again!”) How realistic is that language, when practically nothing is being done to prepare for the possibility that our strengths will not avert the very outcomes we fear?
We Are Not Alone
One parallel to the Plan B Institute are the many groups forming to prepare for ‘Peak Oil’, the upcoming end of the age of cheap oil. Without judging the merits of this scenario, it is noteworthy that many supporters are busy learning urban agriculture, converting vehicles to vegetable oil, and consciously imagining what a future without cheap oil will look like. Post Peak Living is but one example of this trend.
Artists have started to imagine what a post Israel world will actually look like. My favorite example is Ronen Eidelman’s Medinat Weimar project, in which he calls for the establishment of a Jewish state to be established in the modern German State of Thuringia.
Israeli film maker Yael Bartana has produced a film that imagines a cry from the anguished heart of Poland asking for 3 million Jews to return – for Poland’s sake. Another Israeli artist created in a series of chilling photographs what a refugee camp for Jews from Israel might look like in some dark future. (Sadly, I could not find the link.)
What is happening is that some Jewish and Israeli artists are taking seriously the existential fears of Israelis. These efforts are likely to continue, helping to spread awareness that the world is indeed a more chaotic and dangerous place than our recency bias would have us believe.
The Plan B Institute
My call is for a Plan B Institute for ‘a’ Jewish Future, and not ‘the’ Jewish Future. We don’t know what the future holds. But we know that throughout our history, we have evolved in fascinating and unexpected ways as a people, often in response to world historical events no one would wish upon themselves. Isn’t it time to devote a small fraction of our resources so we can be just ahead of the curve, instead of just behind it? It’s interesting to ponder, where would we be today if there was a Plan B institute in Germany, in 1933? We can’t change the past. But we can have a Plan B Institute to ensure our future.
This post is part of the series 28 Days, 28 Ideas. Check out yesterday’s idea, “Reducing Barriers to Entering the Jewish Community”, over at the Jewish Federations of North America. And be sure to check out tomorrow’s idea at Jewschool. You can also visit 28days28ideas.com for the full list of ideas as they progress.
